2026-10-15 · ArXiv
arXiv:2605.27016v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) can hallucinate, but do model uncertainty estimators reliably reveal when they do? Although uncertainty estimators are increasingly used to identify unreliable generations, their relationship with hallucination remains poorly understood and is often taken for granted. We systematically evaluate 46 uncertainty estimators across complementary hallucination settings, covering both intrinsic hallucinations, where outputs are unsupported by the provided context, and extrinsic hallucinations, where claims are unsupported by expected model knowledge. Across four benchmarks and multiple LLMs, we find that the association between uncertainty and hallucination varies widely and is often weak, depending on the hallucination setting and the model under evaluation. These results challenge the use of uncertainty as a direct signal of hallucination and clarify when it provides useful information.
原文链接：https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27016
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